Less of the same in 2016
Low growth, low inflation, flat share markets and a falling Australian dollar are set to continue into 2016, according to forecasts from some of Australia’s leading economists.
However, according to BT Financial Group Chief Economist Chris Caton, it will be a case of “less of the same” in 2016.
“Australia will continue to experience the drag on growth from the adjustment to falling mining capital expenditure and lower income from commodities but the rate of decrease will slow,” he says.
“Where inflation last year was low and falling, this year it is likely to remain low but start rising. Growth will remain low but is likely to be higher than last year. The Australian dollar is likely to continue to fall against the US dollar but the rate of decrease will slow.
So the themes are similar but it is more akin to ‘less of the same’ rather than ‘more of the same’.”
Mr Caton is cautious about Australian shares in 2016, forecasting mid to high single digit returns, although more optimistic than many of his economist peers who on average predict a flat or falling share market over the year, according to the recent Business Day Economic Survey of 26 leading Australian economists.
“Markets are not cheap by any measure but they are reasonably good value at current levels,” Mr Caton says.
“Smarter heads than I calculate that the US share market is currently factoring in a 60% chance of recession. If the chance is less than that, which I believe it is, equity markets are almost certainly good value.”
Mr Caton also believes the Reserve Bank is likely to respond to improving economic data by increasing interest rates twice in 2016 to finish the year at 2.5%. On the other hand, as you can see from the table below, most economists have tipped a cut to official interest rates in 2016, with the average of the 26 economists surveyed by Business Day forecasting a slight fall.
Mr Caton believes the unexpected strength in economic data is likely to stem from sectors such as tourism and education services which benefit from the weakening Australian dollar.
House prices in Sydney and Melbourne are also tipped to rise in 2016 by the panel of economists, albeit at a much slower rate than the 11% plus rises in 2015. Many point to the tightening of lending practices for investment properties and housing affordability as the major factors in the cooling off.
Source: Business Day Economic Survey January 2016, RP Data, Yahoo Finance, Trading Economics, World Bank, Australian Bureau of Statistics.
|Actual 2015||Forecasts for 2016|
|Chris Caton, BT Financial Group||Bill Evans, Westpac||Richard Robinson, BIS Shrapnel||Jakob Madsden, Monash University||Average of 26 leading economists|
|Australia GDP growth (annual)||2.50%1||2.80%||2.70%||2.80%||1.30%||2.50%|
|World GDP growth||2.40%2||3.10%||3.50%||3.50%||3.30%||3.20%|
|Sydney home prices growth (annual)||11.50%||2.00%||2.00%||-5.00%||2.00%|
|Melbourne home prices growth (annual)||11.20%||4.00%||3.50%||0%||2.80%|
|Unemployment rate, 31 Dec||5.80%||5.60%||6.00%||6.00%||6.30%||5.90%|
|Consumer price index increase, 31 Dec (annual)||1.70%||2.60%||2.20%||2.70%||2.10%||2.10%|
|Reserve Bank cash rate, 31 Dec||2.00%||2.50%||2.00%||2.00%||1.75%||1.90%|
|USD/AUD, 31 Dec ($USD)||0.73||0.68||0.67||0.70||0.77||0.69|
|S&P/ASX 200, 31 Dec||5296||5500||4700||5258|
|Iron ore spot price 31 Dec (US$per tonne)||41||46||42||37||39||40|
1.Australian annual GDP Growth at 30 September 2015.
2.World Bank estimate of World GDP growth for 2015 (Jan 2016).